The price signals from the futures market show that in the second half of the year, China's prices may generally maintain the process of fluctuating and falling back, which provides space for further launching the fiscal policy and monetary policy of pre adjustment and fine adjustment.

Price discovery is the primary function of futures market. As agricultural products (6.82,0.00,0.00%), energy and raw materials are basic raw materials, the fall of these commodity prices will pass through the industrial chain layer by layer and spread to the downstream industries, and finally be reflected in the prices of means of production and consumer products, while the continuous fall of various means of production and consumer goods prices further led to the continuous decline of PPI and CPI indexes. Us experience shows that CRB index futures, representing the trend of a package of commodities, are generally ahead of market interest rates for 3-6 months. It is an important early warning indicator of US inflation / deflation and an important indicator of fed decision-making.

From February to April 2011, domestic and foreign bulk commodities have set new highs since the international financial crisis in 2008. Correspondingly, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI and CPI in China has been rising, and reached a phased high of 7.5% and 6.6% respectively in July 2011. Since then, the bulk commodity has continued to fall, and China's PPI and CPI indicators have also started to peak and fall. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI was negative at the beginning of March this year, and even fell to - 1.4% in May.

Historically, the price discovery function of futures market has forewarned the inflation and deflation of China's macro-economy many times in advance. The inflationary pressure from 2007 to the first half of 2008 has already been revealed through the change of futures price: from August 2006, Dalian soybean futures price rebounded to the bottom and rose all the way, from the lowest 2486 yuan / ton to 2937 yuan / ton at the end of 2006, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20%. However, in the second half of 2006, China's CPI remained stable at about 1.5%, and there was no sign of inflation. Until the end of 2006, China's CPI remained stable The change of commodity price was transmitted to CPI index, resulting in a year-on-year growth rate of CPI of 2.8%. As commodity prices continue to rise, so does the CPI. In the first half of 2009, this transmission phenomenon was more obvious: at that time, the commodity market experienced a sharp rebound in 2008, and in the beginning of 2010, it continued to hit a new high. However, China's PPI and CPI index kept a downward trend from January to July of the same year, and only began to pick up in August.

As for the current trend of bulk commodities, due to the influence of the European debt crisis on global economic growth and the demand for bulk commodities, and the continued strength of the US dollar, domestic and foreign agricultural products, energy and raw materials began to fall in the second quarter after experiencing a rapid rise in the first quarter, and the fall in may further accelerated, especially last week, a number of varieties reached a new low since this year. In terms of the trend of commodity leader crude oil futures, after the recent sharp fall, the futures price almost returned to the low position in 2011. For nearly a quarter in 2011, the platform near this price has been in a long-distance confrontation. In addition to the current weak global energy demand, the U.S. crude oil inventory is still close to the highest level since 1990. It is expected that New York crude oil will not quickly fall below the threshold of $80 / barrel in the short term, and it is more likely to be around $80 for some time.

The trend of global commodities in 2012 indicates that China's prices may maintain the process of overall shock and fall in the second half of the year. In view of the commodity market information is often ahead of the statistical indicators by 3-6 months, relevant macro-control measures can be taken in advance.